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Forex Weekly Outlook - Weekly forex market review by Easy-Forex - Updated weekly
- Daily forex market review - Updated daily: Forex Daily Outlook
Heavy data week for the US,
with ISM and Non Farm Payrolls. BoE Gov King expected to re-iterate
easing bias.
31/03/08
last week’s currency trading review
The Dollar continued in its run of poor
economic data, mounting pressure on the greenback. Although Existing home sales
figures to start the week were released at 7 month highs, data out of the U.S.
failed to follow suit for the rest of the week with poor consumer confidence
figures in particular. The Michigan Sentiment survey was released at 69.5 on
Friday confirmed it lowest reading in 16 years. The Euro was buoyed by
German IFO and a hawkish ECB in the middle part of the week pushing the Euro to
an all time high of 1.5905. The Euro closed last week at 1.5783 having opened
at 1.5335. The Japanese Yen was generally weaker and as always tracked
equity markets. On the data front the CPI figures on Friday grew at there
fastest pace in a decade. The USDJOY closed last week at 99.45 having opened at
99.30. The GBP was pressured following a dovish BoE concerned with a
slowdown in economic growth for 2008. The GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9923
having opened at 2.0173. The AUD had little data out for the week
although ended the week marginally higher on rebounding commodity prices. The
Aussie Dollar closed last week at 0.9223 having opened at 0.9144.
The
forex trading week preview
In the States; heavy data week coupled with
another dose of volatility in global equities ensures an interesting time in
trading. The story is widely expected to continue with ongoing poor reading out
of the US
prompting markets to price in future rate cuts from the Fed. Key releases in
the form of Manufacturing ISM (Tuesday) and Services ISM on Thursday. As like
ever first Friday of the Month, Non Farm Payrolls is sure to warrant plenty of
attention. Fed Chairman Bernanke is expected to testify in front of a joint
economic committee on Wednesday. We will provide our previews and reviews
of these data releases in the daily summary.
In the Eurozone; questions arise as to
whether the Euro can continue its recent run. Data includes PMI Manufacturing
and Unemployment Rate on Tuesday, Retail Sales and Trichet Speech on Thursday. In
the UK;
Governor King speaks on Monday with markets awaiting views of future
policies. Other data will be in the form of PMI Manufacturing (Tuesday) and
Services on Thursday. We will provide our previews and reviews of these
data releases in the daily summary.
In Japan;
all eyes on
the Tankan Survey for the first quarter of 2008 out on Tuesday. We
will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily
summary.
In Australia; the RBA are widely expected
to keep rates on hold come Tuesday, whilst Governor Stevens will testify in
front of parliament on Friday. Retail Sales out on Friday for Australia.
We will provide our previews and
reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
KEY WEEKLY
PIVOT LEVELS
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Currency
|
Sup
2
|
Sup
1
|
Spot
|
Res
1
|
Res
2
|
|
EUR/USD
|
1.5408
|
1.5584
|
1.5785
|
1.5833
|
1.5904
|
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USD/JPY
|
98.46
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98.89
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99.15
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100.33
|
101.04
|
|
GBP/USD
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1.9849
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1.9927
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1.9935
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2.0111
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2.0145
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AUD/USD
|
0.9073
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0.9122
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0.9155
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0.9243
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0.9290
|
|
XAU/USD
|
912.02
|
934.80
|
928.10
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952.00
|
954.03
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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·
Euro – 1.5785
Initial support at
1.5584 (Mar 26 low) followed by 1.5408 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now
located at 1.5833 (Mar 18 high) followed by 1.5904 (Mar 17 low).
·
Yen – 99.15
Initial support is
located at 98.89 (Mar 26 low) followed by 98.46 (Mar 20 low). Initial
resistance is now at 100.33 (Mar 26 high) followed by 101.04 (Mar 25 high)
·
Pound – 1.9935
Initial support at
1.9927 (Mar 26 low) followed by 1.9849 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now
at 2.0111 (Mar 26 high) followed by 2.0145 (61.8% retracement of the 2.0398 to
1.9737)
·
Australian Dollar – 0.9155
Initial support a 0.9122
(Mar 26 low) followed by 0.9073 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now at
0.9243 (Mar 26 high) followed by 0.9290 (61.8% retracement of the 0.9499 to
0.8953 decline)
·
Gold – 928.10
Initial support at
934.80 (Mar 26 low) followed by 912.02 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now
at 952.0 (Mar 26 high) followed by 954.03 (38.2% retracement of the 1032.50 to
905.03 decline)
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Previous Outlooks:
03/10
03/03
02/25
02/18
02/05
01/14
12/17
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