|
Forex Weekly Outlook - Weekly forex market review by Easy-Forex - Updated weekly
- Daily forex market review - Updated daily: Forex Daily Outlook
FED cut rate 50 bps as expected and NFP alarmed about US
slowdown with a negative reading. EU ECB expected to hold rate steady and UK
BoE likely to cut it on THU.
05/02/2008
last week’s currency trading review
EURUSD traded
firmly and range-bound to the USD as the ECB so far seems reluctant to ease
policy in the EU. GBPUSD held steady against the USD up until the NFP outcome
timing which was an irrelevant trigger
for GBP selling based on expectations for BoE easing ahead. USDJPY fell
slightly as markets were significantly risk averse up to the FED expected rate
cut and rose by the end of the week when markets gained some encouragement to
turn positive. The NFP however showed a loss of 17k jobs, which is really
surprisingly negative news to which the market however did not react with broad
USD selling. Large part of market believes the FED moves to heal the crisis and
the needed markets correction may create Gold rose to record levels as
power crisis in the world’s biggest Gold producing country
South Africa caused suspension of production. Gold alter experienced sell off
as markets did a US equity significant positive turn on FRI triggered
by the excitement of msn’s bid on yahoo which showed market levels may be attractive
for investments.
The
forex trading week preview
In the States; finds a light data week
scheduled with ISM non-manufacturing and jobless. US Treasury secretary Paulson
will give a testimony of great interest to the Senate Finance Committee. The
market has already aggressively priced in the future rate cuts of the FED and
the USD may not fall much from here however disappointing any coming data may
be, several market analysts suggest, unless of course more stock market turmoil
sparks strong risk aversion. We
will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily
summary.
In the Eurozone; EU Retails Sales are
expected to show rebound on TUE. Main focus is on THU, where both EU ECB and UK
BoE are deciding on their rates. ECB is likely to keep it steady but it will be
interesting to see whether Trichet’s hawkishness changes in light of recent
market & policy concerns. The BoE may want to take a step and cut this time
in light of current economic situation. However, this may be a very close vote.
We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily
summary.
In Japan;
IN the data
front Japan’s
manufacturing orders on FRI may be firm. JPY continues to serve as a proxy to
risk aversion and carry-trade
direction. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data
releases in the daily summary.
In Australia; The RBA is expected to hike
on TUE and release comments on their future intentions on how to handle
inflation; likely to be hawkish. We will provide our previews and reviews
of these data releases in the daily summary.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Weekly period’s technical levels
|
Currency
|
Sup
2
|
Sup
1
|
Spot
|
Res
1
|
Res
2
|
|
EUR/USD
|
1.453
|
1.471
|
1.482
|
1.492
|
1.517
|
|
USD/JPY
|
104
|
105.4
|
106.9
|
107.3
|
110
|
|
GBP/USD
|
1.942
|
1.967
|
1.973
|
1.988
|
2.002
|
|
AUD/USD
|
0.89
|
0.903
|
0.908
|
0.94
|
0.96
|
|
XAU/USD
|
850
|
890.4
|
901.3
|
977
|
1010
|
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
Click here to visit
Easy-Forex.com
Previous Outlooks:
01/14
12/17
| 
