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Forex Weekly Outlook - Weekly forex market review by Easy-Forex - Updated weekly
- Daily forex market review - Updated daily: Forex Daily Outlook
Fed Chief hints at 50 bps point cut, US
CPI figures key this week
14/01/08
last week’s currency trading review
The Dollar continued to struggle against a
number of majors despite finding some support in the early part of the week. It
was not until Chairman Bernanke’s comments mid week that “downside risks to the
economy” remain caused investors to
price in a possible 50 bps rate cut. The dollar ended the week on poor Trade
Balance data, with the deficit further widening on Friday ensuring views of the
Fed slashing rates on the 29th of January gained in momentum. The
Euro saw the central bank hold rates on Thursday, whilst President Trichet
hinted at further tightening on the back of continuing economic growth. Despite
data in the early part of the week had shown that the Consumer Spending may
have slowed on poor retail sales figures. The EUR closed last week at 1.4792
having opened at 1.4772. The Japanese Yen had a quiet week on the data
front, tracking moves in stock prices. Friday night saw Wall Street saw risk
appetite dwindle, as the Yen was able to cap its weekly decline of 0.4% against
the dollar. Overall the USDJPY closed the week at 109.44 having opened at
108.41. The GBP had a tumultuous week once again, sinking to a fresh
record low versus the Euro. The BoE kept rates on hold despite views the
economy remains sluggish with investors prone to pre-empt a rate cut in the
next meeting. GBP closed the week at 1.9600 having opened at 1.9728. The
AUD reported a string of buoyant data as Retail Sales for the month of
November and then saw the Trade Deficit narrow the following session. The
AUDUSD opened the week at 0.8938 before closing the week at 0.8729.
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The
forex trading week preview
In the States; finds a heavy data week
scheduled with Retails Sales and PPI heading the week. Undoubtedly CPI figures
on Wednesday will be key for any further hint at rate movements at the end of
the month. Thursday’s release of the Housing starts and Philly Fed will be
supported by Speeches from a number of fed officials including Bernanke, in
which it is assumed that the economic outlook will be of focus. We will
provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In the Eurozone; German ZEW survey is out on
Tuesday, whilst CPI data will be published on Wednesday. Not to be outdone,
ECB’s Trichet and Almunia are scheduled to attend a Euro conference in Cyprus
on Thursday. In the UK;
House prices are released on Tuesday, along with CPI figures Unemployment
Wednesday and Retail Sales on Friday. e will provide our previews and
reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Japan;
markets
will be closed on Monday, before the release of Balance of Payments and Machine
Orders due Tuesday. We will provide our previews and reviews of these
data releases in the daily summary.
In Australia;
Aussie
Unemployment Rate figures will be released on Thursday before RBA Stevens is
scheduled to speak in London
on Friday. NZ CPI (Wednesday) and Retail Sales on Thursday. We will
provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
TECHNICAL
COMMENTARY
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Currency
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Sup
2
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Sup
1
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Spot
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Res
1
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Res
2
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EUR/USD
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1.4588
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1.4640
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1.4785
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1.4825
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1.4968
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USD/JPY
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107.91
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108.40
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108.65
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109.71
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110.12
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GBP/USD
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1.9432
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1.9484
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1.9580
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1.9637
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1.9669
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AUD/USD
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0.8784
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0.8812
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0.8895
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0.8977
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0.9073
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XAU/USD
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853.60
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866.50
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896.20
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898.20
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899.35
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·
Euro – 1.4785
Initial
support at 1.4640 (Jan 9 low) followed by 1.4588 (Dec 31 low). Initial
resistance is now located at 1.4825 (Jan 4 high) followed by 1.4968 (Nov 23
high).
·
Yen – 108.65
Initial support is located at 108.40 (Jan 7 low) followed
by 107.91 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 109.71 (Jan 8 high)
followed by 110.12 (Jan 9 high)
·
Pound – 1.9580
Initial support at 1.9484 (Jan 11 low) followed by 1.9432
(Mar 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9637 (Jan 11 high) followed by
1.9669 (Jan 10 high)
·
Australian Dollar – 0.8895
Initial
support a 0.8812 (Jan 10 low) followed by 0.8784 (Jan 9 low). Initial
resistance is now at 0.8977 (50% retracement of 0.9400 to 0.8553 decline)
followed by 0.9073 (Nov 14 high)
·
Gold – 896.20
Initial support at 866.50 (Jan 10 low) followed by 853.60
(Jan 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 898.20 (Jan 11 high) followed by
899.35 (Jan open + Dec range)
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Previous Outlooks:
12/17
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