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Forex Weekly Outlook - Weekly forex market review by Easy-Forex - Updated weekly
- Daily forex market review - Updated daily: Forex Daily Outlook
Previous Outlooks:
03/31
03/10
03/03
02/25
02/18
02/12
02/05
01/14
12/17
Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Solidifies Recession Woes. ECB and BoE
scheduled for rate announcements.
7/04/08
last week’s currency trading review
The Dollar began the week on a surge
however it was affected by another week of poor economic data coming out of the
World’s biggest economy. The big data release for the week saw Non-Farm
Payrolls increase to 80,000, pushing up the unemployment rate to 5.1%, up 0.3%
from February. The other big news was in relation to the Fed’s chairman Ben
Bernanke’s testimony on economic outlook where he highlighted the likely
contraction in the economy for the first quarter, further heightening the
likelihood of a recession. The Euro was hampered by worse than expected
CPI, from 3.1% yoy to 3.5% yoy, causing
the ECB to maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. Retail Sales figures
released saw an unexpected drop of -0.5% mom. The Euro closed last week at
1.5718 having opened at 1.5783. The Japanese Yen reflected news from the
quarterly Tankan Survey which came at 11, below a forecast of 13 for the first
quarter of 2008. The USDJPY closed at 101.78, after opening at 99.45. The
GBP also fluctuated throughout the week following poor data results, which
supports the view the BoE may cut rates when it meets this week. The GBPUSD
opened at 1.9923 before closing at 1.9924. The AUD fell slightly through
the week following poorer than expected Retail Sales figures of -0.1%. RBA’s
Governor Stevens speech indicated there is a change in demand amongst
consumers, justifying rates being held at 7.25%. He did concede however that
inflation rates were still uncomfortably high at could peak at 4.0%. The Aussie
Dollar ended the week at 09120 after opening at 0.9223
The
forex trading week preview
In the States; volatility is likely to
continue throughout the week amid recession fears, a poor economic outlook and
possible further interest rate cuts. The release of the minutes on Tuesday from
the March FOMC meeting is likely to cause
some action in an otherwise quiet week in terms of data releases. Some news to
look out for is the Trade Balance figures (Thursday) and Import Prices
(Friday). We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases
in the daily summary.
In the Eurozone; the focus is on the ECB’s
Thursday rate announcement and whether they will leave rates at 4.0% to
maintain their stance on fighting inflation. Other commentary which may affect
the Euro will come from ECB’s Bini Smaghi (Monday) and ECB’s Weber (Monday). On
the data release side of things, Q4 Eurozone GDP is due out, along with
Wholesale prices and PPI data out of Germany
which will give an indication on the impact of inflation. In the UK;
the big news to come out will be the BoE’s rate announcement on Thursday
with traders adding to bets the BoE may cut rates, despite the upward pressure
on prices. Other news to be released this week is the Trade Balance figures
(Thursday), Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) and House Prices (Monday). We
will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily
summary.
In Japan;
again the
focus will be on the Central Bank and whether rates will be moved from their
current levels of 0.5% following weak Tankan Survey results. Also noteworthy
will be BoJ’s economic outlook to be released along with the rate announcement.
Other data to be released is Japan’s
Current Account Surplus on Wednesday. We will provide our previews and
reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Australia; the Aussie Dollar can be
expected to stay volatile given the current volatility in commodity prices,
along with the poor economic data coming out from the States. Furthermore, all
eyes will be on the Unemployment rate to be released on Friday with
expectations of it maintaining its low levels. Other interesting releases coming
out include Thursday’s Australian Labour Force data and Wednesday’s consumer
confidence. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data
releases in the daily summary.
KEY WEEKLY PIVOT
LEVELS
|
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
|
EUR/USD
|
1.5510
|
1.5639
|
1.5731
|
1.5774
|
1.5787
|
|
USD/JPY
|
100.24
|
101.27
|
101.56
|
102.95
|
103.59
|
|
GBP/USD
|
1.9760
|
1.9911
|
1.9930
|
2.0048
|
2.0090
|
|
AUD/USD
|
0.9024
|
0.9100
|
0.9221
|
0.9254
|
0.9290
|
|
XAU/USD
|
873.00
|
888.20
|
915.70
|
914.57
|
921.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· Euro – 1.5731
Initial support at 1.5639 (Apr 4 low) followed by
1.5510 (Apr 3 Low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5774 (Apr 4 high)
followed by 1.5787 (Apr 1 high).
· Yen – 101.56
Initial support is located at 1021.27 (38.2%
retracement of the 98.56 to 102.95 advance) followed by 100.24 (61.8%
retracement of the 98.56 to 102.95 advance). Initial resistance is now at
102.95 (Apr 3 high) followed by 103.59 (Mar 11 high).
· Pound – 1.9930
Initial support at 1.9911 (Apr 4 low) followed by
1.9760 (Apr 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0048 (Apr 4 high) followed
by 2.0090 (Mar 28 high).
· Australian Dollar – 0.9221
Initial support a 0.9100 (Apr 4 low) followed by
0.9024 (76.4% retracement of the 0.8953 to 0.9254 advance). Initial resistance
is now at 0.9254 (Mar 27 high) followed by 0.9290 (61.8% retracement of the
0.9499 to 0.8953 decline).
· Gold – 915.70
Initial support at 888.20 (Apr 3 low) followed by
873.00 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 914.57 (Apr 4 high) followed
by 921.00 (Apr 1 high).
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